Forecast
Live surf conditions and forecasting resources for Lake Michigan and the Great Lakes.
Current Conditions
Wave Height
3-4ft
Wind
NE 15mph
Water Temp
42°F
Last updated: Feb 19, 2026, 1:28 AM
Data from NOAA Buoy Station 45007
Forecast Resources
Tools for reading the lake.
How to Forecast
How to Forecast Lake Michigan Waves — 4:16 — The Visionary Studios
How It Works
The technical logic behind a Lake Michigan surf forecast.
Identify Fetch Alignment
Lake Michigan is a north-south “pipe.” The longest fetch runs from top to bottom. Winds aligned along this axis (0°–20° or 160°–200°) have maximum distance for energy transfer — building bigger, more organized swell.
Strictly East winds have short cross-lake fetch and produce choppy, disorganized waves. These get filtered out first.
Air Density & Season
Cold, dense air provides more “grip” on the water surface. Warm summer air glides over the lake with less energy transfer. This is why fall and winter consistently produce the biggest waves on the Great Lakes.
The forecast engine assigns a higher wave energy coefficient to October–March, when cold air density maximizes wind-to-wave energy transfer.
Wave Energy Coefficient by Season
Grooming Factors
Once swell is generated, wave quality depends on the angle of wind hitting the face. For Milwaukee’s west shore, a West component (NNW or SSW) creates offshore pressure that grooms the wave face — holding it up, making it clean and surfable.
Michigan’s east shore is the mirror image: NNE or SSE winds provide grooming. The system identifies which shoreline benefits from the current wind vector.
Offshore Grooming by Shore
Wisconsin (West Shore)
Groomed by W, NNW, SSW winds
Michigan (East Shore)
Groomed by E, NNE, SSE winds
Onshore wind = choppy mess. Offshore = clean faces. Cross-shore = rideable but textured.
Structure Mitigation
When wind exceeds 20 knots, open beaches become unsurfable — blown out, walled up, and dangerous. But man-made structures create leeward zones where clean waves still form.
The system identifies nearby piers, breakwalls, and point breaks, determines their orientation, and directs you to the protected side. If wind is from the South (180°), the north side of an east-west pier is where you want to be.
Wind Speed Decision Tree
Open beach
Clean conditions, most spots working
Exposed spots marginal
Look for structure protection
Leeward zones only
Piers, breakwalls, point breaks
Data Sources
Atmospheric Data
Real-time and 48hr forecasted wind vectors, air temperature, and barometric pressure from NOAA marine forecasts.
Coastal Geometry
Breakwater and pier orientation mapping to identify leeward “clean zones” based on current wind direction.
Visual Verification
Surf cam and recent footage analysis to confirm whether the fetch is producing organized sets or a washing machine.